Surprise incidents can blindside us at any time, but how can we mentally be prepared for unexpected changes to the status quo? Pollack Media’s Pat Welsh gives us some suggestions on ways to perhaps change our perspective. Perhaps you will be better equipped to deal with surprises if you look at them from a certain point of view.
Pat Welsh
By: Pat Welsh
I’m currently reading a book called The Black Swan, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The book has nothing to do with the movie of the same name. Instead of ballerinas and dark forces, this book is about philosophies of knowledge and how we see our world. A central argument is that we constantly underestimate the possibility for rare, but profound, occurrences. Another important point that the author makes is that we sometimes reach a point of diminishing returns where we focus so much on minutiae and perfecting what we already know that big things can escape us. Conventional thinking leads to (the ironically named) conventional wisdom.
Reading this book got me to thinking about, well, thinking. In a world where we can peer into a microscope to map the human genome or deep into space through the Hubble telescope, we still sometimes miss a massive tsunami or two. As I started to write this, unrest in Egypt was starting to boil over, eventually leading to regime change there, and likely in other countries too. While informed observers have predicted an Arab uprising for some time, no one predicted the timing.
Other recent examples abound: the 9/11 terror attacks (failure of imagination), Hurricane Katrina inundating huge swaths of New Orleans and the Gulf coast (hubris leading to complacency), and the financial meltdown in 2008 (pick your reason) are among the most spectacular events, both natural and man-made, that few saw coming.
This same way of thinking also applies on a smaller scale. A death in the family, the loss of a job or a friend’s divorce can happen with little warning. What could be next in your world? What might take place to upset the shape of the status quo? But let’s also turn it around; make this process seem more like an agent of change than pure fatalism: what can you do to change the status quo?
It starts with thinking of your world in new ways. New thinking leads to new perspectives and new ideas. Here are a few ways for all of us to see new possibilities.
Think like a champion – Being a champion starts with thinking like one. You don’t get to #1 by accident. It’s a product of preparation, practice and perfecting technique. Thinking like a champion means thinking like a leader, expecting the best from yourself and those around you. It’s a sense of self assurance, never arrogance. Of course, thinking like a winner is necessary, but not sufficient; a budget for marketing and research will certainly help. But remember that many people have lost even when they had these tools. Don’t just dream big, think and act like a champion.
Think like an athlete – Use visualization techniques to prepare for what might happen next. Athletes try to visualize each event, working through the various contingencies, culminating in victory. Visualization and playing through various scenarios in your head is a good way to be prepared for the unexpected. This works especially well for any negotiation or situation which may become adversarial. Whether you’re delaying with your boss or your employees, spend the time to think it through in advance. Rehearse for the worst case scenario.
Think like a listener – Hopefully, you’re doing this already. Your ability to put yourself in the shoes (and heads) of your listeners will go a long way to making your station better. As programmers we spend a lot of time trying to do what’s right for the brand, but the listeners aren’t interested in the brand. They’re interested in what they want, and you should be too. Perhaps you take time to get out of the office periodically just to listen closely to your station. Monitoring intently from home or a hotel room is great, especially if you can get uninterrupted time to really focus on what you hear and evaluate what’s good and bad from a listener’s point of view. But a more casual, listener-centric approach is essential too.
Listen like real people do. Put your station on in the background as you’re doing routine chores, or taking your kids to their events. Afterwards, try to take a few minutes to record your impressions of the experience. How did your station fit into your routine? Did it complement it or disrupt it? What could make it a better companion? Try the same exercise every once in a while with your competitors too.
Think like a GM – The best way to advance in your career is to think like the guy ahead of you. If you’re a Program Director with aspirations of something greater, think like your General Manager. Get used to viewing your world and your decisions through his/her eyes. Realize what the larger implications are of each move. How will changes affect sales, not just programming? What pressures are coming from corporate?
Think like a sales person – For programmers, thinking like a sales person has a number of advantages. First, there’s the practical matter of providing perspective on how to marry the needs of listeners with the imperative to generate new revenue. Second, on a more general approach, thinking from the perspective of someone with a very different job, point of view, or life experience is an excellent way to open up your mind. Break the usual patterns and you’ll see new things and new ways of doing business. Third, the essence of sales is to create win-win situations. The ratings part of programming is a zero sum game; the business and interpersonal relations aspects are not.
Think like the other guy – Ulysses Grant, in one of his first battles after being made a general, stood on a hill watching Confederate troops move into position before the action started. Grant wrote in his memoirs about how he started to become nervous until he realized that it was the other guy’s first battle too. That gave me him the confidence to go on to victory that day and many times thereafter. What’s going through the mind of your competitor? What moves would you make if you were counter programming your own station? Formal role playing in this way is an excellent exercise to spot – and then correct – your own weaknesses.
To return to The Black Swan again, the title of the book referred to a long-held belief by western naturalists that swans could only be white. For centuries it was thought that being white was an innate part of being a swan…until surprised explorers in Australia discovered black ones.
Just because something hasn’t happened doesn’t mean that it can’t happen. Think about what might be, not what has been. It’s all in your head anyway.
Pat Welsh
SVP Digital Content
Pollack Media Group
Pat Welsh, Senior Vice President/Digital Content, Pollack Media Group, can be reached at 310 459-8556, fax: 310-454-5046, or at pat@pollackmedia.com.
