Gary Marince
by Gary Marince
As all who speak on behalf of Arbitron know, when it comes time for the question and answer portion of a presentation, one of the first questions to roll off the tongues of Programmers is: “What about Cell Phones?” Now, with much delight, we can report the good news; beginning with the Fall 2009 survey period, about 125 Arbitron Diary markets will join the existing Arbitron PPM markets to include Cell Phone Only households.
Let’s take it from the top. Over the past five years, the number of persons which severed their landline and moved to a Cell Phone Only household has tripled. For adults 18+, from 2004 to 2007, the number of Cell Phone Only households went from 4.4% to 14.5%. And the percentage of children living in Cell Phone Only households has also grown exponentially from 3.7% to 14.4%. That means about one out of every six American homes had only wireless phone service in the second half of 2007 – the most recent available survey period for this type information.
And, according to the same Center for Disease Control (CDC) National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) “Wireless Substitution: Early Release” report, more than one-half (56.9%) of adults living with unrelated roommates live in households with only wireless phones. And adults renting their home (30.9%), were more likely than adults owning their home (7.3%) to be living in households with only wireless telephones.
To no one’s surprise, the U.S. is moving to wireless only households at a fast pace. The questions for us are how and why does that impact the sample on both Diary and PPM markets? For those who may not completely understand how Arbitron gathers its sample, it involves the use of the potential respondent’s telephone. In Diary markets, our sample is based on a telephone frame. Cell Phone numbers are treated very differently from landline numbers and are not part of that frame. So, as the population goes wireless, the universe from which we can recruit diarykeepers is diminishing – and the shrinkage is occurring in key demos. The number of households which can only be reached by Cell Phone are more likely to be between the ages of 18 and 29. Additionally, Cell Phone Only households are more likely to be students, lower income, and Hispanic or black consumers. Cell Phone Only households are less likely to be homeowners, 45+, middle and upper income and live in the Northeast.
Not to confuse the issue, but as stated earlier, in the world of the Portable People MeterTM, PPM, Arbitron has always and will continue to include Cell Phone Only households in the panel. So Arbitron’s recent announcement impacts only Diary markets – not PPM markets since the PPM markets already include cell phone only panelists.
In addition to the 125 markets which will begin including Cell Phone Only households in the Fall of 2009, Arbitron has a goal of including CPO households in all markets by 2011.
Should Programmer’s expect differences in audience estimates once a market begins to include Cell Phone Only households? Probably not. Major changes are not expected. While people who can be reached only by Cell Phone have different characteristics than landline respondents, they actually represent only a relatively small portion of the total sample.
Now, another very good question is: “Why didn’t Arbitron do this sooner?” Well, anyone who has ever attended an Arbitron Programmer’s Fly-In has heard Dr. Ed Cohen address this very question. The answer is simply that Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) prohibits companies from using predictive (computer) dialers when calling known Cell Phone numbers without subscriber consent. Loosely translated, CPO numbers usually require manual dialing (you may be interested in learning Arbitron, along with other like-minded groups, continue to meet with members of Congress and lobby them to change this law). And there is no phone directory or database of CPO numbers which can be accessed. So the first hard part is figuring which numbers to call and the second hard part is manually dialing Cell Phones.
The reason Arbitron is able to pursue CPO households more vigorously now is because of a new process which is being pioneered by Arbitron — based on using addresses instead of phone numbers. This process was tested in the Spring of 2008 and the results were promising – and through this process, Arbitron is able to automate the dialing without violating the TCPA. The sample quality metrics (e.g. return rate, diary usability and other metrics) for the Cell Phone Only test were better than expected. The analysis is ongoing, and Arbitron expects to report the findings to the industry very soon.
It’s worth noting Arbitron did the first survey ever, in the United States, to call cell phones. This occurred in 2002. What we have learned while experimenting with wireless households will be implemented when we roll-out Cell Phone Only households in Diary markets. And the same practices which are being developed for the Diary markets will be carried-over to PPM markets moving forward.
What can PDs expect in the future? Well, feel good about the fact that Arbitron recognizes the importance of this issue and, after years of testing, has a plan to bring Cell Phone Only households into the Diary market sample soon. Again, it has always been in the PPM sample. And stations which rely on demos inside the 18 to 34 year range have a new source for respondents (by the way, did you know that since the 1990 census, the 18 – 34 demo has decreased by 2,000,000?).
For those who are interested in learning more about how Cell Phone Only statistics are determined, the single best source seems to be from the Center for Disease Control http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhis.htm or http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/nhis/releases.htm.
That’s it for now. Here’s wishing you a great Fall book. For those interested, Arbitron is hosting a Fly-In for Programmers of Hispanic stations, in Los Angeles, on Thursday September, 25th. And on December 4th and 5th, Arbitron is hosting its Winter PPM Consultant Fly-In in Columbia.
Good luck! Gary.marince@arbitron.com
Gary Marince is Vice President of Programming Services and Development for Arbitron, Inc.. He is available to answer your inquiries regarding the Arbitron PPM or Diary services. You can reach him at gary.marince@arbitron.com.
