Maybe a better title for this article would be “Can We Cancel Talent Vacations?” As markets transition to PPM, there are a handful of questions being asked more frequently. For example, one is based on the role of a morning show in the world of electronic measurement and has spawned the new question: “Oh no, what are we going to do when our morning show goes on vacation?”
Gary Marince
By Gary Marince
As markets transition to PPM, there are a handful of questions being asked more frequently. For example, one curiosity is based on the role of talent, more specifically, a morning show, in the world of electronic measurement. After a round of summer vacations in multiple PPM markets, that question has been asked and answered. The question has now shifted. It is no longer “do we really need a big morning show?” The new question now being asked, usually with some anxiety is . . . “Oh no, what are we going to do when our morning show goes on vacation?”
I have the unusual advantage of seeing many stations, many markets and many months of data. Beginning with August, we started getting inquiries from stations asking about some unanticipated estimate variances. After some heavy sleuthing, one clue raised its hand and said “look here.” It is being dubbed the “Vacation Phenomenon.”
Here’s a real simple view and explanation of this phenomenon; if you have a morning show . . . or really any daypart . . . where the share for that daypart exceeds, by any significant amount, your total weekly share, you have exposure or vulnerability when that talent is “not in the chair.” This characteristic was not as obvious in the world of the diary. But, in PPM, there are many PDs now saying “we have to change the way we handle vacation fill-ins.”
What’s the last thing you want to hear as you enter a Broadway show after the lights dim and just before the music starts? It has to be “ladies and gentleman, tonight the lead role will be played by understudy (insert name here).” Often people don’t even know who has the lead role but they are sensitive to the message which was just sent . . . “this ain’t the real thing!” Never mind that the understudy could be ten times better . . . it doesn’t matter.
Radio, maybe too often, sticks the overnight guy in the slot and/or runs “best of shows.” Same problem! The “best-of” shows send a message to the listener this “ain’t the real thing.” Interestingly, replaying a bit or the actual rebroadcast of a show might not be the problem. It seems it’s the accompanying message which sets up the show as a “has been . . .” and that’s the rub.
Through PPM we’ve learned listeners usually consume their favorite stations in multiple short duration chunks. Moving forward, some very successful PDs and Group Programmers are creating “Virtual Morning Shows.” In this case, the content piece of the show is handled by the regular talent and the “fill-in” host handles the timely elements. During the period of time the listener hears the show, it sounds “normal.”
I am aware of some very successful syndicated personalities who replay segments routinely and never draw attention to it. They simply deliver an audience-worthy show and make no apologies . . . and it works! So it seems it’s not the fact it’s a replay . . . it’s the setup which matters.
Now to the question as to why the Vacation Phenomenon is so pronounced, here’s another piece of the puzzle; the typical family vacation follows the calendar – Sunday through the following Saturday. In broadcast speak, this actually crosses two weeks and means the vacation impacts two different rating’s weeks. So a one week vacation, where the key talent is gone, disrupts two Arbitron weeks. And on the occasion of someone getting two contiguous weeks of vacation, it actually impacts three Arbitron weeks.
More than one PD is promising to change vacation schedules . . . stating the new vacation week for talent is “Thursday through Wednesday.” I would find it quite entertaining sitting in the meeting when that’s explained to talent. Time might be better spent figuring out how to make the daypart sound as normal and consistent as is possible.
It’s pretty simple to just eyeball and compare daypart shares to project where and when a station might have exposure during a talent’s absence. But there is a quick calculation which a number of programmers are using to identify vulnerability, it’s called “Daypart Indexing” and it works like this; take your total week share (say it’s a 7.6) and divide that into your talent’s daypart share (say it’s a 10.1) and then multiply that by 100 . . . and round the number (no decimals – just whole numbers). The resulting number is the daypart’s index. Any index over 110 is worth noting (by the way any index under 90 is worth noting for a different reason). When the talent who generates the 110 or greater index is not in the chair . . . what does the audience hear? It’s a fair question. And yes, when the morning numbers go soft . . . it can and often does impact other dayparts – not favorably.
Double Trouble: I recently ran some September numbers on a spoken word station I was about to visit and noticed two different dayparts with drop offs and wondered about the possibility of two talent vacations. Yep – the station GM asked about his drop offs and I asked about his vacation schedule – they aligned. By the way, in the ratings biz, the survey month rarely lines up with the calendar month – so half of a calendar month can be in a different Arbitron month.
Vacations are only part of this equation. I am aware of a spoken word station carrying Rush Limbaugh . . . and what an exciting time to have such a compelling personality. Unless of course, the Rush show is pre-empted by a non-playoff afternoon baseball game – frequently. Ya’ gotta’ wonder . . . if people are tuning for Rush and they don’t get him . . . are they likely to change their mind and take in the game or move on to another show? Fair question – yes? Again, a matter of expectations – what are they . . . and are they being fulfilled?
Maybe a better title for this article would be “Can We Cancel Talent Vacations?” Bottom line, yes, the right “big morning show” seems more valuable than ever. And what a great day for talent . . . to have a measurement system which is sensitive enough to acknowledge talent’s contributions to successful programming.
Get pumped!
[Note: And as a reminder to Programmers, we have our annual Consultant’s Fly-In next month in Annapolis, MD, December 9th and 10th. If interested in attending, I’d love to hear from you . . . gary.marince@arbitron.com .]
Gary Marince is Vice President of Programming Services and Development for Arbitron, Inc.. He is available to answer your inquiries regarding the Arbitron PPM or Diary services. You can reach him at gary.marince@arbitron.com.
