Pat Welsh tackles some big issues in his latest Programming To Win column, as he gives some key ways terrestrial radio can remain on top for listeners in an increasingly fragmented audio world. While “play the hits” may seem like obvious advice, Welsh explains that it’s a bit more complicated and far-reaching of an idea.
Pat Welsh
Gordon Borrell’s apocalyptic prediction that half of terrestrial radio stations will disappear, has the industry up in arms. “There are other means of sending out audio,” he said. “You you won’t need an FCC license.” His point was that terrestrial radio’s in-car monopoly is a thing of the past. The digital dashboard, according to Borrell, is a mortal threat to many stations.
Undoubtedly, many more people will be listening to their Spotify playlists, customized Pandora stations and favorite podcasts in their cars in a decade, but will that really kill off half the existing stations? Radio has held up remarkably well under an onslaught of new digital options. We still have a weekly reach north of 92%.
Borrell emphasized that he believes terrestrial radio will take an even bigger hit. To combat the digital competitors, he said, the radio industry needs to decide what it can do better than these new competitors. For music radio, it comes down to why should a listener keep us on instead of enjoying a personalized experience such as Pandora, Spotify, iTunes Radio, etc.?
Whatever you think of Borrell’s premise, or his harrowing prediction, reexamining what makes us different and what can keep us strong is a worthy exercise.
The usual list of strategies includes doing a better job with social media, emphasizing the local angle and featuring compelling personalities. And what do we do about the disparity in the commercial loads between terrestrial and digital services?
Because this is a place for practical solutions, I looked at the problem tactically. What should a music station do to position itself for the future? What do people want from us as compared to other options?
While it varies some by format, our fundamental job description is: play hit songs, core artists and essential new music. We’re the curators. Studies show that most people still discover new music on the radio. And they look to the radio to choose the hits. If it’s on the radio, it must be a hit…or it soon will be.
That leads me to the following musical suggestions about how to remain part of the half that will survive:
- Think Big, Not Small – Most stations don’t have a problem with musical focus; often it’s the opposite. Find reasons to play songs for your station, rather than reasons not to play them. Don’t be a slave to the charts; you’re programming a station, not a format. Take what your market will give you.
This is another lesson we can pick up from the PPM: big cumes are essential. Playing the biggest hits from a variety of genres is what has always made CHR successful. But it’s true for other formats as well. Over the past 3 years, Alternative has reenergized its ratings, as well as its sound, by backing away from hard rock and rekindling its romance with poppier and quirkier material.
- Find All the Hits; Find Them First – Sift through the dark corners of pop culture and you’re bound to come up with some hits that you didn’t know about. But your listeners do. This isn’t about taking chances; it’s about not overlooking the obvious.
We do this in other ways, but not as much with music. Morning shows make their living by finding out what’s resonating with listeners and giving it to them.
Each year there are a number of songs that are attracting eyes, ears and credit cards without the benefit of much airplay. You’ll find them in TV shows, online and in the clubs. Recent examples include Tove Lo’s “Habits” and Hozier’s “Take Me To Church.” Tove Lo’s “Habits” was a Top 20 song in sales and streaming – well before U.S. radio picked up on it.
Nielsen’s BDS Radio has a terrific tool, the Streaming report, which allows you to look at streams of songs, compared with their airplay and sales numbers. Take a look at what’s selling and streaming all out of proportion to its airplay. Sometimes it’s pure novelty, such as “Gangnam Style;” sometimes they’re high-quality hits. Which ones are right for your audience?
- Increase Repetition: Give Them What They Want, When They Want It – It’s not a question of playing things too much; many stations still don’t play their biggest hits often enough. I exaggerate – slightly – when I tell clients that there’s no such thing as burn. The important thing is to find that small handful of songs that have captured the moment and play them, a lot. If you play 9 songs in heavy rotation, chances are you’re missing on several of them. But selecting the best 3 or 4 to get saturation airplay is an easier mark to hit.
The PPM, with its enormous cumes and low TSL, is our monthly electronic permission slip to play the big hits more frequently. People tune in much more often for much less time than we used to think. It’s an instant gratification world, like everything else. Listeners are constantly hunting for a better song.
I did some digging into chart history and, sure enough, CHR – already the most repetitious format – started to accelerate rotations dramatically in 2009, the first full year that the PPM was deployed.
This is also true, to a lesser extent, for gold-based stations. But the same principle applies. In fact, I believe that gold-based stations can significantly rev up the spins on their top gold songs without hurting themselves.
It’s also true with other key content, such as morning show bits. This is a new frontier for exploring repetition, but look at how the audience turns over in mornings. Why don’t the 7:00 listeners get to hear the same great content as the 8:00 listeners?
- Reduce Artist Separation: The Old Rules No Longer Apply – This becomes a necessity if you’re going to really rotate your hits. The ironclad rule that you must separate plays by the same artist by an hour or hour and a half is arbitrary and outdated. People just don’t listen that long. According to the PPM data, the average duration of a listening occasion – regardless of market, month, demographic or format – is 9 to 11 minutes. Chances are, with listeners frantically tuning around, searching for a better song, you’ll get blamed for somebody else’s repetition anyway.
Of course, these are averages; there are people who tune in for longer periods of time. But P-1s make up a smaller percentage of the cume and a smaller percentage of quarter hours than we used to think. The old 80:20 rule (80% of quarter hours comes from 20% of your cume) isn’t even close.
If Gordon Borrell intended to get our attention, mission accomplished. What makes us better than Spotify, Pandora and other digital music options? People have more options than ever. You can hear anything you want for just $10 a month. That’s tough to compete with when everybody’s on the same platform.
But while there’s a bigger selection than ever before, it’s still a hit driven world. Finding the hits, making the hits and playing the hits is still our mission. The important part is nurturing new tactics to stay ahead of our digital competitors.
Pat Welsh, Senior Vice President/Digital Content, Pollack Media Group, can be reached at 310 459-8556, fax: 310-454-5046, or at pat@pollackmedia.com.
