Where It’s At – Alternative Radio by The Numbers

By Mike Stern, Jacobs Media

Mike Stern

It seems like suddenly everyone wants to talk about the state of the Alternative format. Not that long ago a number of new, major market stations signed on and everyone was excited. Now, after a tough year, there seems to be concern in the air.

When these moments occur, we often focus on how good things used to be or speculate about the future. Both can lead to worthwhile insights, but what often gets overlooked is an honest assessment of where things stand now.

My goal is to create a snapshot of the state of Alternative today using three distinct lenses: the flagship stations in New York, Los Angeles and Chicago; the most played songs of 2020; and the Nielsen ratings.

The Flagships – New York, Los Angeles, Chicago

Remember, just having Alternative stations in the top three markets is encouraging because it hasn’t always been the case.  What is interesting is they are owned by three different companies, and each station represents a unique approach to Alternative.

These statistics represent a single day of music — 6am – 12 midnight. No overnights or weekends. Just a typical weekday of airplay.  

First, let’s look at the music by decade:

New York is playing the most music from the 2020’s and the 2000’s with less emphasis on the 2010’s. Los Angeles is more centered in the 2010’s and 2000’s while Chicago represents each decade almost evenly.

There are also differences in how they approach new music.

New York is the most contemporary with currents making up nearly 30% of their spins. Los Angeles is the most conservative at just 14% current, leaning more on recurrent titles. Chicago is more balanced between currents and recurrents.

Breaking down the songs played that day by sound further reinforces the difference in each station’s approach.

Two of New York’s top three sounds are from the 2020’s while the third skips over the 2010’s to the 2000’s. In Los Angeles, the two most played sounds are from the 2010’s and the third is from the 2000’s. Chicago again takes a more diverse approach and is the only one where a 90’s sound is in the top three.

The Entire Format

Now, let’s widen the perspective to look at music trends across the entire format.

According to data from Mediabase, the most played Alternative gold songs of 2020 are split fairly evenly across three decades.

Among the top 100 titles, one-third came from the 90’s, nearly 40% are from the 2000’s and just under 30% are coded in the 2010’s though considering Mediabase’s list stopped at 2018, the actual totals are likely closer to an even three-way split between decades.

Widen the lens to look at the top 250 or 500 most played gold titles and the percentage of songs from the 90’s creeps steadily upward even overtaking the level of 2000’s titles. When the format looks for depth, it still defaults to its 90’s roots.  

Breaking down the most played titles by sound, three segments make up the majority of the Top 100, forming the backbone of the format:

1990’s Rock Crossover songs from acts like Red Hot Chili Peppers, Green Day and The Smashing Pumpkins comprise the biggest sound. It’s important to note this does not include artists like Nirvana and Pearl Jam. Broken out separately, Grunge makes up just seven percent of the top 500.

The second biggest sound comes from the 2010’s when Alternative was sharing artists like Twenty One Pilots, Imagine Dragons and Lorde with Pop and Hot AC stations.

Rock-leaning artists from the 2000’s such as Linkin Park, Foo Fighters and Incubus make up the third largest segment of gold titles played on Alternative Radio stations in 2020.

This analysis illustrates how the strongest songs in the format – the ones that have stuck around and have become library tracks – are the ones Alternative shares with other formats. Conversely, when it comes to new music, which generally makes up around 45% of an Alternative station’s daily log, there is less crossover product. Looking at the most played new songs of 2020, two-thirds did not cross over to another format. Of the remaining third, most were played on Pop Radio while less than 10% were shared with Rock.

This isn’t surprising as very few new songs will be lasting, impactful titles. That’s part of the role Alternative plays; exposing the audience to new, untested acts. Which means there will be a lot of songs that never cross over or become library tracks.

The Ratings

Finally, let’s look beyond what’s being played to how it’s being received by the audience. The charts below represent data from January to November of the last three years in Nielsen PPM-rated markets.

The simple reality is that Alternative as a format has lost some ground in three key demos:

But while overall the format has been trending down, so are many other formats that play contemporary music. 

Formats showing the most growth since 2018 are Classic Rock (4.2 – 4.5 – 4.9) and News/Talk (4.3 – 4.3 – 4.8) with Classic Hits and Country flat or up slightly.

Conclusions

Now for the hard part, taking in all the data and deciding what it means.

• Don’t panic. The format’s overall ratings are down but they’re not awful. And let’s face it – 2020 was a tough year. As COVID-19 restrictions loosen and the vaccine proliferates, major artists releasing product and touring could easily help turn things around.

• Overall ratings trends aren’t indicative of every station. There many successful Alternative radio stations in a variety of markets, which means the format has potential to be impactful just about anywhere.

• There is not a single, “correct” music recipe for Alternative stations and there shouldn’t be. There are too many local factors that influence programming decisions. Just like the programmers in New York, Los Angeles and Chicago make decisions tailored to their city, local programmers should do the same.

• The format is facing demographic challenges. Compatibility between 90’s music and new titles will continue to erode over time. Building a cohesive audience will continue to be the biggest challenge Alternative programmers face for the foreseeable future.

• Radio’s demographic trends play a role here, too. If younger consumers continue to gravitate away from broadcast radio – or listening to them on “regular radios” – that puts a different cast on the challenges facing programmers.

Every format dependent on new music goes through periods of time when “center lane sounds” are less defined and cohesive. With the variety of sounds being exposed and different programming approaches to the format, this seems like “one of those times.” But this has happened before and the format has always emerged stronger. There’s no reason to think brighter days aren’t on the horizon.